Après avoir lu quelques analyses, je retiens pour ma part ceci, de la conférence de Copenhague:
** les grands pollueurs étaient à la table de négociation, Chine et Etats Unis en tête: ils ont fait quelques pas, c'est nouveau; avec l'Union européenne, l'Inde le japon, la Russie, ils représentent 70 % des émissions de gaz à effet de serre.
** le principe a été retenu de soutenir les pays pauvres dans leur adaptation au changement du climat (qui est admis par tous): la route est libre pour négocier l 'autre affaire importante: la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre
** les négociations vont maintenant se poursuivre sur plusieurs fronts; il appartiendra aux Nations Unies des collationner les résultats, et de les présenter sous forme d'un accord NON CONTRAIGNANT: car une erreur aura été de vouloir contraindre 192 pays à la fois. Il semble plus réaliste d'avancer vers des objectifs librement décidés, mesurables et controlables avec souplesse
** le débat va s'étendre au volet commercial (et là, l'Europe peut réapparaître, car elle a été curieusement effacée...)
** les Nations Unies vont sans doute repenser leur schéma de travail. La mécanique européenne, avec ses comités, ses groupes, ses instances intermédiaires... peut-elle fournir des éléments utiles pour de nouveaux schémas de travail ?
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